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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2023-01-08T05:00:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-01-08T05:00Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/23178/-1
CME Note: CME seen SSE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. Possible source: a large area eruption centered around ~S40E30 to the S or SW of AR 3182 (S17E44), seen slowly developing as a complex shape dimming (or two nearby areas of dimming) in SDO AIA 193 starting around 2023-01-08T03:30Z and happening soon after multiple middle and upper C-class flares from AR 3182 earlier in the morning.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-01-12T06:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 2.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/23180/1
Model Inputs:
2023-01-08T05:00:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-30.0, Lat.=-35.0, Speed=330.0, HalfAngle=37.0, Time21.5=2023-01-08T15:52Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2023-01-12T06:00Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=4
(kp)180=2

Other Location(s) Impact:

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230108_155200_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230108_155200_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230108_155200_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230108_155200_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230108_155200_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230108_155200_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230108_155200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230108_155200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230108_155200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230108_155200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230108_155200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230108_155200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230108_155200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230108_155200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230108_155200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230108_155200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 83.95 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) on 2023-01-08T18:03Z

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